the Florida housing market is on the verge of collapse right now prices are dropping inventory is exploding and we could be on the precipice of another 2008 style crash where values go down by 30 40 maybe even 50% in certain cities in this video I'm going to give you all the update on the Florida housing market because this data is getting crazy the first thing we're going to do is look at the inventory Trends in the state on reventure app you can see that there's now 169,000 homes for sale across the State of Florida was up 33% from last year and the highest level on record going back to the 089 crash at the same time sellers are now cutting prices in Florida at the highest rate in a decade as well which is leading to some owners taking massive losses on their homes but what I think is an interesting question to ask is just how much are home prices going to go down in Florida in this crash and where are they going to go down by most and to answer this question it helps to actually start with a little bit of his history of Florida's housing market but you can see that home prices actually went down in Florida by 49% in the last housing crash from 07 to 2012 the typical home value went from 252 to 127 it was a big big crash where a lot of people got wiped out and a lot of people have actually forgotten about this crash even though it didn't happen that long ago and then you can see since then price has recovered and boomed again and are now starting to Trend down because home prices across the State of Florida are approximately 20% overvalued according to data on reventure app prices are about 20% above the long-term Norm suggested by the prevailing incomes across the state and so that's a benchmark for how much prices in Florida could fall over the next couple years if this downturn keeps happening however there's big differences across the state in terms of overvaluation you have some metros which are 23% overvalued some metros which are 36% overvalued down in Broward County prices are 33 % overvalued these overvaluation rates are going to be instructive in helping you assess as a buyer investor or seller how much downside there is and one thing I think is really interesting is that the mainstream real estate media is now catching on to this Florida downturn and this is something that you all need to pay close attention to it's no longer just being reported on by me and some other people on YouTube it's now being reported on by the big boys with redin just running an article titled housing inventory in Florida just hit the highest level on record they're reporting that the number of homes on the market in the Sunshine State rose 23% year-over-year up to 172,000 and this is the highest inventory of any month in records dating back 2012 because of this redin report the Tampa Bay Times then ran a similar article talking about how the Florida housing market sees a new high with 172,000 homes listed and why this is relevant is because now what I'm going to call like the normal people the normal population in Florida are going to learn that the housing Market's in a downturn this is going to become very mainstream very soon and that's going to have a big impression on how people in Florida list their homes and how much they cut prices because it's getting harder and harder for sellers across the state to justify listing at crazy high asking prices which is why the values are now dropping but of course some people are still being stubborn and listing at excessively high prices for instance let's have a little fun everyone let's scroll through some listings here on Zillow in St Petersburg in penel County right in my backyard let's see what sellers are doing here all right we got a three bed two bath on the market in St Pete for 460 Grand now this was a flip the owner bought it for 320,000 and is now listing for 460,000 that's $340 a foot looks like a decent okay renovation I don't know if it's enough to get $120,000 premium it's actually wild to me how many home flippers there are here in the Tampa St Pete area I feel like one out of every four people flips homes all right let's take a look at another listing here's a townhouse for sale three bed three bath 19,00 ft for $5.9 9 the seller originally had this listed in October at 619 then actually increased the price to 650 and has now cut it to 599,000 so this house has been on the market for like four or five months just is not selling they bought it for 315,000 in August 2015 and so you can see the seller still trying to make a hefty chunk of change this is the area that got flooded worse by the hurricane and you could see we have listings all over the place people selling houses as is for 200 Grand when they purchased them for 325 Grand only a year ago so L the seller on this is taking a 40% loss and so there's still a lot of variation in the Florida housing market with what's on the market and I think for you out there as a buyer or investor that can be frustrating because you keep hearing from me and others about the Florida housing market being in a downturn however there's still a lot of listings on the market that are excessively priced and I just want to let you know that that's normal in a housing downturn things go in a very incremental fashion First Supply goes up then prices start start to drop slowly but surely then some houses start selling uh below asking price and Below what the previous owner bought it for and slowly but surely those houses enter the comps and then drag down the values across the market and so uh it's important to understand that a housing downturn takes time to play out in that last crash in Florida it took 5 years for it to play out we're still in the uh second or third inning of this downturn there's a lot to go and so don't be discouraged if you're a potential buyer and you're not seeing the prices drop as much as you want now let's run through some local market insights across the State of Florida using Revenge rep so you guys can better understand the local Dynamics at play because the State of Florida is a big place there's over 160,000 listings there's over 20 million people so uh what's going on in your city might be different than what's going on in another city or another neighborhood so let's drill into this data on inventory price growth and price Cuts so you can better understand the trends in your market right now we're going to start by looking at Price Cuts everyone what are the counties in Florida with the highest price cut rates as of February 20125 according to this data from realtor.com which is on reventure app so let's isolate Florida here we can go to the filters tab which is something that you guys should do if you want to conduct in-depth analysis you can isolate specific States so we're just looking at Florida and now we're ranking all the counties with the highest price Cut Rate and let's actually only look at counties with a population above 200,000 people you can see Charlotte County in Porta has the highest PR price Cut Rate 41% of all listings with a reduction and actually home values here are down 8% over the last year already number two is Lee County in Cape Coral 39% of sellers cut the price in February 2025 values are already down 6% year-over-year Duval County and Jacksonville has the third highest price Cut Rate Pasco County north of Tampa has the fourth highest price Cut Rate Manatee County south of Tampa has the fifth highest price Cut Rate we also have high price Cuts in pellis Sarasota seminal Collier and Hernando with the biggest weakness in Florida definitely coming on the west coast so prices are dropping the most here on the West Coast kind of everywhere down south from Naples all the way up to Pasco and Hernando County prices are dropping but I don't want you guys to sleep on Central Florida there's some narratives out there that I see people spinning that Central Florida is not going to get hit Central Florida is like doing better that's not really true for instance if we look at the inventory rate in Poke County in Lakeland you can see we have over 5,000 homes now for sale in Lakeland when prior to the pandemic there was only 3,000 homes so inventory is up 60 to 70% in Lakeland a clear indication that prices are going to Trend down additionally inventory in Oola County south of Orlando has completely gone through the roof we have over 4,000 homes for sale in Oola County um again that's almost double the pre-pandemic norm in Supply and listing so when you see this much Supply on the market that's a signal to you as a buyer that's becoming more friendly for you in the prices are more likely to drop in the future another interesting thing is southeast Florida everyone so we got Palm Beach Broward in Miami date County you can see inventory in all these areas is up 31 to 45% year-over-year but it's really Broward where inventory is up the most Broward County now has almost 17,000 homes on the market for sale that's the highest level since the last crash in ' 0809 and I want to put that in context and perspective Supply is now the highest it's been since ' 0809 in Florida that's huge as far as an indicator of where this Market is trending when the supply is this High and the demand is not recovering that's telling you there's something structurally wrong in the market something is shifted where the buyers even though there's more and more homes sitting on the market and even though prices are dropping the buyers aren't coming back and this is reflected in a statistic called the months of Supply on the market in Florida months of Supply takes the inventory divides it by the sales pace and right now in Florida we have over 7 months of Supply this is according to data from redin almost 7.4 months of Supply in February 2025 you could see at the pandemic low we only had one and a half months of Supply in Florida so look at that shift in market dynamics this is the highest months of Supply again since ' 0809 and what I think is really interesting are the differences in months of Supply by state so just to give you guys some context Florida has the highest months of inventory of any state in America on the Market uh number two would be Louisiana uh Montana would be number three Texas would be number four you can see Ms of suppli is also growing in the Southeast like Tennessee Alabama Mississippi so it's really this sector of the housing market here in the South and Southeast where the supply is higher conversely if you were to go up to like Massachusetts there's only 2.1 months of Supply on the market in New Hampshire there's only 2.7 months of Supply in New Jersey there's only 2.8 in New York there's only 3.4 months of Supply on the market so we still have tight housing market conditions in the Northeast and Midwest and what's actually really amazing here if you look at this graph everyone we're comparing the months of Supply in Florida the orange line to New York the blue line and what do you see is that currently Florida has over two times more months of Supply on the market than New York which is why prices in Florida are dropping but still going up in New York but what I think is interesting is if you go before the pandemic it was flipped before the pandemic New York had more months of supply than Florida so before the pandemic New York had 7 months of Supply Florida only had 4.6 4.8 and now this has shifted significantly indicating again that something structural is going on here in Florida's housing market like there's people I talk to who still think that this is somehow just like you know not real or this is just like a little market blip and that uh prices are going to recover and demand's going to recover but like ask yourself the question why is New York's housing market doing so much better right now when it wasn't before the pandemic and I think the answer is people are moving back to New York right that's a perfect explanation for why Florida's housing market continues to deteriorate in performance but while New York continues to get better is that the people who moved from New York to Florida during the pandemic and stimulated the Florida housing market here are now moving back to New York so they're selling their houses in FLorida buying in New York that is the trend that we're seeing that not a lot of people are talking about a lot of people are still trying to say this is all about you know property insurance which of course the property insurance crisis has a huge impact forcing people to sell or the HOA uh crisis yes that's a big deal but the biggest deal is a reversion in migration Trends there's simply fewer people moving into Florida than there were more people leaving and that's something that's not going to be solved overnight that's going to take probably a good three four five years to sort itself out so the good news for you as a buyer is I think this buyers Market is going to continue in Florida for extended period of time I think over the next several years prices will continue to get cheaper however you're going to have to make an assessment of when you want to get into the market and how much prices need to drop before you pull the trigger because the risk of buying today in Florida or in the next six months is that you know you buy maybe a reduced price but then prices drop by more after you buy and so you're going to have to assess that and the way to assess that risk is by looking at the data and understanding both the short-term Trends in the market and the long-term trends in the market and the fundamentals and there's really three data points that I think you should pay close attention to right now one is the reventure app home price forecast score this is a score from 0 to 100 it's going to let you know how likely it is that prices drop in the near term but in addition you're going to compare that price forecast with the overevaluation rate which shows how historically overvalued prices in Florida are both of these data points are available under a Premium plan at ww.
Reventure doapp and you can access them down to your ZIP code so you can get a better sense on the fundamentals in your Market we're looking at the overvaluation rate here for a neighborhood called Hy Park in Tampa uh you can see it's 18% overvalued with a 40 out of 100 Price Forecast suggesting that we think prices are going to drop here over the next year although the price forecasts for some of these surrounding areas are even worse some of these areas are like a 27 out of 100 on the score or a 25 out of 100 if you go across the pellis county so you're going to want to track that forecast score for your area as well as the overvaluation rate head to reventure app right now to do that sign up for a premium plan the cost is $39 a month or $33 a month for a 15% discount if you do the annual plan and pay upfront this is housing market data that you really need in 2025 if you're a buyer investor seller in Florida so you can better understand how this volatile Market is trending