new data from the US Census Bureau is showing that people are now leaving states like Florida Texas and Arizona this is bombshell data that's suggesting that these local housing markets are going to be in big trouble in 2025 if these migration figures continue and let's start with Florida everyone you can see Orange County in Orlando Hillsboro County in Tampa Penllis County in St p palm Beach County Fort Lauderdale and Miami all registered domestic migration losses in 2024 particularly in Miami 67,000 net Americans moved out of Miami date county that's the biggest outflow in Miami's history moreover if we head to Texas you can see Dallas lost 47,000 people in 2024 that was the second biggest loss in Dallas County's history moving down to Austin Travis County lost 14,000 people the biggest loss in Austin's history of people and if you head out even further to Phoenix you can see Maricopa County officially lost people in 2024 and the fact that people are now leaving these major housing markets in Texas Florida and Arizona is a massive shift it's a massive news story because it suggests that people can no longer afford to live in these areas the prices went way up during the pandemic the rents went way up and now a lot of the local population is being priced out and forced to move to cheaper alternatives in other parts of the country and what I find interesting is that this is already starting to show up in home price data you can see there's three states in the US where home prices are officially going down on a year-over-year basis and what are they florida Texas and Arizona prices are already dropping in these states reflecting that migration slowdown you can see home value growth has also slowed in the Southeast georgia is now only up 1% year-over-year south Carolina is only up 1.8% colorado in the Mountain West is only up 0.9% and I think this speaks to the underlying shift the structural shift that's occurring in the US housing market right now where fewer people are moving into the boom towns that occurred uh during the pandemic while more people are moving to what I call the legacy cities and states in the Northeast and Midwest that lost people during the pandemic but are now gaining people back due to their relative affordability and due to the fact that people are getting called back into the office and I want to actually just take some specific examples here for you guys out there so you can understand what's happening in different housing markets and I if I haven't covered your market yet stay with me we're going to do a rapid fire around later and I'm going to cover the migration figures in a lot of different areas but what we're looking at here is the domestic migration this is a data point under investor metrics on Revententure app and we just updated the migration data for every county in America so it goes down to the county level and if uh you haven't checked it out yet check it out soon and it's available under a premium plan but I want to actually zoom in here on where I live in Florida hillsboro and Panllis County on the west side this is Tampa and St pete you can see both of these counties lost people in 2024 lost Americans in Hillsboro we went from plus 16,000 migration in 2022 to minus 11,000 in 2024 so again that means 11,000 more Americans moved out of Hillsboro County than moved in that's the biggest migration loss in Hillsboro County history same thing in Penllis so Penllis County covers St pete Penllis Park and Clearwater you can see Penllis County lost 4,000 people which is the third biggest loss on record another interesting market to consider is Orange County which is Orlando orange County in Orlando lost 18,000 people this was the biggest domestic migration loss in Orlando's history no other time in the last 35 years from this US Census Bureau data has it shown so many Americans moving out of Orlando now this data comes from the US Census Bureau and it measures the net domestic migration into these counties which takes the number of Americans moving in and subtracts the number of Americans moving out and the census collects this net domestic migration data by looking at IRS tax returns Medicare enrollment as well as social security administration numerical identification data so this is some really strong accurate data showing you where Americans are moving but really like the really interesting thing is Southeast Florida because I hear a lot of people talk about Southeast Florida like it's this magnet for Americans moving in it's really not everyone all three major counties in Southeast Florida lost people palm Beach Broward and Miami miami date in particular lost 67,000 net Americans in 2024 you can see Miami actually always loses its domestic population but this was the biggest domestic population loss in its history the way Miami gains population is through international immigration however domestically it loses people because it's simply way too expensive to live which of course is a shock to I think a lot of people in Florida right a lot of people in Florida are told that Americans are continually moving in and that the population is continuing to grow but here we have this direct data from the US Census Bureau which looks at where people file their taxes it looks at where people uh enroll in Social Security and Medicare and it's saying no no these cities and counties in Florida are losing people which is of course going to have a big ramification on the economy and housing market into the future and actually if we zoom out you can see most counties in America are in blue on this domestic migration map most counties actually lose people right especially in the middle of the country you can see there's a big exodus from the middle of the country there basically always is there's also an exodus from the northeast people are continuing to leave the Northeast which is surprising that this housing market in the Northeast is holding up so well interestingly probably one of the best performing areas in the Northeast on migration is Manhattan in Manhattan you could see it only lost 5,000 net Americans in 2024 this was actually one of the lowest losses for Manhattan in its history of course you see the huge loss that occurred in 2021 during the pandemic manhattan lost 101,000 people in a single year five times higher than its previous high so we're still uh you know working off that big loss however Manhattan seems to have stabilized in terms of people moving out what also surprised me is that a lot of these areas in New Jersey were losing people bergen County Essex County Middle Sex County i would have expected these areas to have inflows of migration but they're actually losing people suggesting that maybe at some point these local housing markets in New Jersey and Long Island could struggle another interesting place to analyze is California so California is mostly in blue indicating a continued exodus from the state los Angeles lost 100,000 people orange County lost 22,000 san Diego lost 23,000 the only county to really gain in California was Riverside County which came in at plus 7500 but that actually was one of the lowest migration totals in Riverside County's history it typically adds people but it's not adding nearly as many as it did during the pandemic meanwhile the migration losses in a place like Los Angeles are starting to slow you can see a record almost 200,000 people moved out of LA in 2021 however only 99,000 moved out in 2024 which is similar to prepandemic norms so a place like LA kind of similar to a place like Manhattan people are always moving out americans are always moving out because it's too expensive it's just a matter of how many are moving out and we have fewer moveouts in LA than we did a couple years ago the other interesting place to track is San Francisco san Francisco County lost 5,600 people to domestic migration in 2024 you can see that's an improvement from recent years and it's a stabilization in terms of the outflows from the county and just on a statewide basis what are the states that Americans are moving to most based on this data from the Census Bureau in 2024 well it's pretty much what you would expect you can see Texas in nominal terms was number one 85,000 net people moved to the state of Texas in 2024 so while Texas has certain cities that are now losing people as a state it's still adding now it's adding way less than it did in 2022 in 2022 Texas added 222,000 Americans in 2024 it added 85,000 so that was actually one of the worst years for domestic migration in Texas going all the way back to the mid 2000s and so this is something to understand in relative terms everyone people net will always still be moving to a state like Florida florida still gained 64,000 across the whole state but that was down about 70% from the pandemic peak and again one of the worst readings for Florida's domestic migration going back 35 years now if we wanted to talk about what are the areas in Florida that did add people one would be Poke County and Lakeland a net 20,000 people moved to Lakeland in 2024 another 20,000 moved to Pasco County another 12,000 moved to Port St lucy another 11,000 moved to Bvard County so these areas are still in positive territory however again the inbound migration has slowed considerably from what it was 2 years ago and ultimately I think this domestic migration data is very valuable to you as a home buyer or investor in quantitatively understanding the market trends right if you're trying to buy a house and you want to understand if it's a good investment you should understand the migration figures into your area and how they're trending in both the most recent year and in history because that's going to help give you perspective on the demand levels in the market higher migration compared to the long-term norms that's going to mean more buyer demand lower migration compared to the long-term norms that's going to mean less buyer demand and the way to truly interpret this data is not to look at the raw count of how many people moved in in isolation rather you want to look at the data compared to that area's history so let's take for instance Nashville Davidson County davidson County actually lost 2700 people in 2024 meaning it did much worse than all the surrounding counties and the suburbs which gained but just how bad is losing 2700 people well if we look historically we can see Davidson County has actually lost people pretty much every year going back to 2017 and that 2700 is an improvement from what it was losing before so net net Davidson County lost people but it's not a figure that is ridiculous compared to long-term norms meanwhile Williamson County to the south in Nashville gained 1,700 people but just how good is that well you can see it's actually way down from the net 6,000 people that moved in in 2021 and the net 17,000 people that moved to Williamson in 2024 was the lowest level of inbound migration that that county has seen in 35 years what I would encourage you guys to do is to go to ww.reventure.app right now and sign up for a premium plan so you can access that domestic migration data for your area because you're going to want to see what these metrics were in 2024 this data can be found under the investor metrics tab so if you scroll down and go to investor metrics you can see at the bottom it's domestic migration domestic migration percentage which takes the domestic migration as a percentage of the population and by upgrading at the $39 a month you could see this data for every county in the US uh both its current month and its history you can even go to the filters tab and start filtering by domestic migration and maybe target the areas that are still gaining the most people ultimately this domestic migration data is going to be uh great to have in your tool belt as an investor or a home buyer in 2025 so you can access it now ww.reventure.app we just updated it for 2024 under investor metrics under a premium plan for $39 a month let me know what you guys think about this data in the comments below were you surprised by the findings are you surprised to see that people are now leaving Tampa and Austin and Phoenix or are you not surprised because these areas just got too expensive let me know in the comments below