it's official everyone We are now seeing the biggest exodus out of Florida that we have seen since the 2008 housing crash People are packing up and they are leaving They are going to other states and this is something that could cause a monumental downturn here in the local housing market and economy because the US Census Bureau just released new data on domestic migration and it's showing that a lot of counties in Florida lost people in 2024 These counties include Hillsboro and Tampa Panellis and St Petersburg Miami Broward and Palm Beach In some cases these counties had the biggest loss of domestic migration that they have ever faced in recorded history And the reason that people are now leaving these counties in Florida is because it's gotten too expensive to live For instance I'm here in a community that was built 3 or 4 years ago by a home builder And many of these homes were bought up by investors and they're sitting now on the market for rent at 26 2700 a month And you could see that there's a whole stretch of them here available for rent And it's alarming to me how similar the current situation looks to what we saw in 2007208 right before that last housing crash got really bad It was a similar situation occurring The migration started dropping around 0607 and then bottomed out in 2009 2010 right when home prices were dropping in Florida Fast forward to today the domestic migration is in freef fall and think about what that does to the housing market here Like you have all these homebuilders you have all these investors who are speculating on the housing market building homes buying homes to rent them out on the basis that what we saw during the pandemic was going to keep happening But now it's not happening anymore And many of the builders investors are freaking out We keep hearing in home builder conference calls from Lenar and Dr Horton that Florida is weak that they're having to cut the prices in Florida On a statewide basis home values are actually down 2% year-over-year And on the west coast of Florida prices are down as much as 8 and a half% in the worst hit counties in cities like Puntaorta Naples and Sarasota And so in case you were someone who was thinking that there was no housing downturn in Florida or that this wasn't really happening I'm here to tell you it is Everyone all the data is lining up that Florida is now getting hit and getting hit hard by a housing correction which I think will ultimately be good news for home buyers in Florida If you're a renter in Florida waiting to buy if you're maybe an amateur real estate investor kind of trying to get started this downturn will be good news for you However it will be bad news for those who bought at the peak during the pandemic Many of those people are now taking losses I'm in a town right now called Paul Meadow to the south of St Petersburg I'm looking at the listings here and I'm finding tons of listings where the sellers have had to cut the price 10 to 20% from peak market value In some cases these sellers are losing money compared to what they bought the house for And you can see data on Revenge Rap is showing that home prices are going down on a year-over-year basis all across Florida The question is how much are they going to drop prices dropped 50% in the last crash from 08 to 2012 meaning that a $400,000 house became a $200,000 house in that last crash Are we going to see a similar downturn in Florida this time around well I don't think it's going to be as bad as last time because last time we had huge issues in the mortgage market that aren't as present today So we don't have as many bad loans as we did back in the mid2000s You know ninja mortgages made to people with no income no job So we're not going to see as many foreclosures this time around but I don't think we're going to see 50% declines However 20% declines 25% declines maybe even 30% in certain markets that's definitely on the table And of course the whole reason this is happening is because of the affordability crisis The prices went up way too much The rents really surged during the pandemic The local incomes didn't go up nearly enough Down here in Pal Meadow and near Bradenton south of St Petersburg median incomes are around 50 60 70,000 So when the rents and the mortgage payments go up to 3,000 a month not as many people can afford them And actually what I'm going to do right now is show you one of these rentals here in this neighborhood This is a house that's on the market for rent right now from American Homes for Rent They're the second or third largest landlord in America It's a four bed three bath on the market for 2,700 a month And you guys can tell me whether you think it's worth 2,700 a month and if it's actually going to rent for that price And so folks the way I'm getting into this house is actually a lot of these landlords let you take a tour on your own if you just submit some information to them So that's what I did So let's see how this house looks All right So this house was built like four or 5 years ago It's kind of your standard Florida new build home You actually see the living room is not so bad It's pretty big Kitchen looks decent And actually there's a decent size backyard So this is a house like a family could live in Maybe some of the finishes aren't as good See there's a bedroom down here It's pretty small bedroom Really echoey I don't know if you guys can hear that echo Now let's go into the backyard This actually is pretty nice You got a body of water over there You got a fence If you have a dog this might be nice However for 2,700 a month this is pretty expensive Like this type of house four or 5 years ago probably would have rented for around 2,000 a month And then the rents they went up around 30 40% here south of Tampa Let's go upstairs see what upstairs looks like All right this is definitely the primary the primary bedroom Good natural light and you got a pretty big bathroom decent size shower pretty big closet and you have this kind of area in between upstairs I don't know if they could actually use this for anything Maybe put some seating have another kind of pseudo living room there Got another bedroom So there's one bedroom downstairs three bedrooms upstairs bathroom with a tub and then this is probably would be like if I were to live here this would be my office Uh it's like a side bedroom not as many windows So I'm curious what you guys think How much should this house 4 three bath backyard around 2,000 ft² how much should it rent for let me know in the comments section below All right folks Now I'm about to show you a home builder site here just 5 minutes down the road with some really big price cuts just so you can get a sense again of how Florida's housing market is in a big downturn right now But first I want to talk about 2008 and why the migration data we're seeing and the outflow of people from certain Florida counties and the overall slowdown in migration is very similar to what happened in the mid to late 2000s Like take a look at the domestic migration graph in the state of Florida on Reventure App You could see there were two very distinct peaks in migration 0506 and then 2021 2022 the two bubble peaks and then both are now having this massive collapse in migration which is a problem for Florida's housing market because the prices and rents went up to a level that the locals can't afford So if the domestic migration plummets Florida's housing market will naturally go through a downturn Like Florida's housing market needs hundreds of thousands of net people moving in in order to sustain the current prices And so the fact that that's not happening the fact that only 65,000 net people moved to Florida in 2024 is a huge problem The fact that 14,000 net people left Hillsboro County and 18,000 left Orange County in Orlando and another 65,000 left Miami Dade That's a major issue for Florida's housing market and ultimately explains why we're seeing all these issues with low home sales skyrocketing inventory declining prices It's reduced migration that is causing it And it's a fact that a lot of people in Florida don't want to admit You know a lot of realtors here a lot of mortgage brokers just a lot of the local population they're addicted to this notion that everyone is moving to Florida and it makes them feel good to repeat it to themselves So there's a resistance to accepting the fact that the bubble is over and we're in we're in the downturn uh for a large segment of the population in Florida However I would again encourage you to um actually look at this as a good thing This is the natural correction that needs to take place in order to bring balance back into Florida's housing market and economy And the only way that this housing market and economy is actually going to have a chance of growing in the long run is if this drop in migration continues and the prices continue to drop Now here's something that's interesting though about this migration data and where I'm standing right now I am in Manatee County Florida which again is south of Penllis south of Hillsboro County on the West Coast And actually the migration figures into Manatee County where I am now are still strong In 2024 Manatee County had plus 10,000 net migration which was only a little bit off the pandemic high So there are still counties in Florida that are adding people It's just that the composition of where people are going is changing It seems like a lot of residents and local residents in Florida especially are moving to the more affordable areas So even though some of these houses are 2,700 a month to rent they're much cheaper than the houses in St Petersburg and Tampa to rent So the people from St Pete and Tampa they move down here which is why those cities are losing people In Penllis County for instance Penllis County lost 4,000 people in 2024 That was one of the biggest domestic migration losses on record according to this data from the US Census Bureau which you can access on Reventure app Additionally the biggest county in Florida that's losing people is definitely Miami Miami Dade County lost 67,000 net people in 2024 due to domestic migration outflows No doubt in Miami it's just become way too expensive for locals to afford If you're born and raised in Miami it now costs $3,000 a month for you to rent an apartment or it costs like $600,000 for you to buy like a just standard house It's not affordable So the local residents are leaving going to more affordable counties or just leaving the state entirely going to places like Georgia and Tennessee and South Carolina while there's a reduction of people moving in So it's important that you all understand the two dynamics at play here locals leaving because they can't afford it and then fewer wealthy people from New York and California moving in are leading to these domestic migration losses in all these big counties across Florida By the way another area in Florida that's losing people is Orlando Orange County in Orlando lost 18,000 net people in 2024 That was its biggest loss in the county's history going back at least 35 years And so I want you to think about this right like so many people in Florida are telling you all the people are moving down here you got to buy a house the growth is amazing etc etc But when you actually look at the data no the growth in some of these counties is the worst it's been on record and they're actually losing people Now one thing I need to talk about is the difference between domestic and international migration because this is an important point to understand is that Florida is now performing much worse in terms of Americans moving in and having more Flityians moving out But Florida in 2024 still received a lot of international immigration So when you look at the migration charts it's actually kind of funny in Orange County Orange County lost 18,000 Americans net but then gained like 35,000 people to international migration And so when you look at the aggregate population figures in 2024 some of these counties in Florida still look okay However that's deceiving because that big surge in international migration in 2024 isn't going to be there in 2025 The border crossings are down 94% year-over-year And the Trump administration is even doing deportations So we could see that international migration go to uh zero or even be negative in some of these Florida counties And look at this everyone An available sign There's lots of these available signs down here in Florida right now and also in other parts of the US in the sunb belt We're just seeing a gigantic surge in inventory But what's interesting is that prices here in this zip code they're down about 5% year-over-year So I was just on the Reventure mobile app using the mobile app for Reventure app and I hit the current location button and you could see minus 5% year-over-year for prices in this zip Some other neighborhoods nearby are down 6% 7% some are down 4% year-over-year So the prices are officially dropping like this is no longer speculation This is no longer you know uh an isolated listing here and there This is all across the market in Florida values are going down year-over-year and these declines will accelerate into the future because the buildup of inventory just keeps getting bigger Redfin just reported we hit a record number of homes for sale in the state of Florida in Redfin's data set Meanwhile data on showing time is showing that the number of house tours in Florida is below where it was the last two years despite the fact that inventory is way higher So this downturn in Florida is going to continue in 2025 We here at Reventure App are predicting that prices are going to drop 5% across the state and as much as 10% in the hardest hit cities and zip codes So what you should do if you're a home buyer investor in Florida who wants to understand the future direction of this market you should download the Reventure mobile app in the iOS and Android app stores and start immediately searching the home value growth data in your zip code You could do that for free if you sign up for a free account You can see the home value growth and home value growth history in your neighborhood And then once you're ready upgrade to a premium account so you can unlock our home price forecast score You can access that home price forecast score under a premium plan for $39 a month Download that Reventure mobile app now It's going to put the housing market data right at your fingertips